The Reds rotation looks top-heavy this season but some young arms could make it better in 2007. 30 year old righty Bronson Arroyo was acquired last spring in the Wily Mo Pena trade with the Red Sox and it has really worked out well for the Reds. Arroyo was 14-11 with a 3.29 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 35 starts for the Reds in 2006. The only weak spot in Arroyo’s game was giving up the long ball as he allowed 31 homers last season but part of that was because of the Tee-ball field that the Reds play there home games in. Batters only hit .243 against Arroyo and he whiffed 184 batters so his stuff was solid for the Reds all year long. Look for Arroyo to win 15-17 games in 2007 with a sub-4.00 ERA.
Soon to be 29 year old righty Aaron Harang had by far his best season of his career in 2006 as he was 16-11 with a 3.76 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 36 games (35 starts) for the Reds. Batters hit .269 against Harang last season but he didn’t walk many batters (2.15 per 9 innings) so that limited the damage. Harang also whiffed a career high 216 batters last season and that was because of his aggressiveness in the strike zone. Look for Harang to win another 15 games with an ERA of 3.75-3.99 in 2007.
31 year old lefty Eric Milton was 8-8 with a 5.19 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 26 starts for the Reds last season. Milton gave up 29 homers in 152.2 innings last season and batters hit .269 against him. Milton has been a huge disappointment to the Reds since signing him on December 27, 2004. He is 16-23 in his two seasons for the Reds with a 5.72 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP and he’s allowed an amazing 69 homers! Milton is a flyball pitcher in one of the smallest parks in baseball so he will be lucky to win 10 games and keep his ERA under 5.00.
28 year old righty Kyle Lohse was 5-10 with a 5.83 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP in 34 games (19 starts) for the Minnesota Twins and the Reds. Lohse allowed 15 homers and a .298 batting average against him in 126.2 innings. Lohse did pitch much better for the Reds than he did with the Twins and he still has good stuff. Maybe he will be able to focus better in the National League which is historically the easier league to pitch in. Look for Lohse to win 10-14 games with an ERA in the high 4’s in 2007 for the Reds.
30 year old righty Victor Santos was brought in to compete for the #5 spot in the rotation. He was 5-9 with a 5.70 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP in 25 games (19 starts) for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2006. Santos doesn’t seem to be a good fit for the Reds small home park as he allowed batters to hit .321 with 16 homers against him last season. Don’t expect much from him in 2007.
Soon to be 28 year old righty Kirk Saarloos was acquired in a trade with the Oakland A’s in the off-season. He was 7-7 with a 4.75 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP in 35 games (16 starts) for the A’s in 2006. Saarloos allowed batters to hit .308 against him with 19 homers in 121.1 innings last year so it seems like he might not be the best fit in Cincinnati. But he is the favorite for the #5 job when camp opened.
24 year old righty Elizardo Ramirez was 4-9 with a 5.37 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP in 21 games (19 starts) for the Reds in 2006. He allowed batters to hit .293 against him with 14 homers in 104 innings. Chances are that Ramirez will refine his skills in AAA before he gets another chance for the Reds, but he has decent stuff so he will be back.
26 year old righty Matt Belisle was 2-0 with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP in 30 games (2 starts) for the Reds last season. He has been a starter for most of his career in the minors so he will battle for the #5 job in the rotation for the Reds. He does a good job of keeping the ball in the park which can not be said about some of his competitors for the job.
24 year old lefty Bobby Livingston will also throw his hat into the battle for the #5 spot. He got blasted in 3 games for the Seattle Mariners last season as he gave up 9 hits, 10 earned runs and walked 6 batters (5 innings pitched). He was 8-11 with a 4.59 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP in 23 games (22 starts) in AAA ball. Look for him to begin the season in AAA.
Soon to be 21 year old righty Homer Bailey is the next great hope for the Reds rotation. He was 10-6 with a 2.46 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in 26 starts in A+AA ball. He whiffed 156 batters in only 139 innings and only allowed 99 hits. The Reds don’t want to rush him, but his time is coming soon.